If the recent voyage of the Grand Princess is any indication:
When I read about the recent Grand Princess voyage heading for Hawaii, I realized we could learn a lot from that vessel and its voyage. The ship represents a closed universe like planet Earth. The story is still unfolding, but we can gather some basic information and look at the reported numbers.
More than 3,500 people were on this voyage (USA Today, Coronavirus). Ships and planes are notorious for having close quarters and historically have aided in the spread of disease.
Out of the 3500 people on the cruise, the Department of Health and Human Services confirmed two deaths. Both passengers were in their sixties and died from complications from the coronavirus (USA Today, Coronavirus).
1103 of the passengers elected to be tested. 103 of those tested positive. 699 tested negative. We are still waiting for some of the results (USA Today, Coronavirus).
I have used the numbers given to compute the following percentages.
103 out of 1103 tested positive, 9%
699 out of 1103 tested negative, 63%
301 out of 1103 tested with no results as yet, 27%
2 out of 3500 died, Below 1%
Bottom line is that this study seems to indicate the death toll may be quite low. The picture is as yet incomplete, but I believe this analysis is informative.
Exercise caution but don’t panic. I see no need to close down a whole country and depress the economy (which will cause deaths). Under the advice of President Trump and Governor Newsom, we are still waiting to see how things unfold. Indications are that we have not seen the acceleration of the pandemic yet. But if this cruise is any indication, it will not be as dire as the news is predicting. We will see.
It is unfortunate indeed that two people died. Even one death is terrible. Life is not without risk.
References:
https://www.ktvu.com/news/nearly-800-disembark-grand-princess-cruise-ship-process-to-continue-thursday retrieved on March 26, 2020.
usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/03/25/coronavirus-cruise-grand-princess-two-passenger-deaths/5081851002/ retrieved on March 26, 2020.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/grand-princess-passengers-were-quarantined-on-bases-how-many-actually-have-coronavirus-will-remain-a-mystery/2020/03/23/12a91ae4-6bde-11ea-abef-020f086a3fab_story.html retrieved on March 26
My degrees are in chemistry, mathematics and English with a masters in Environment Management.
Recent Comments